We Told You So! A report on No Contest Elections 2002 predictions
For immediate release
November 8, 2002
Contact: Tony Solgård, (612) 724-5540,
tony@solgard.com
Minneapolis, MN -- The results of over half of state
legislative races were a foregone conclusion. That was the prediction of
FairVote Minnesota’s No-Contest Elections™ 2002, released a month before
the elections. It turns out that the predictions were accurate nearly 100
percent of the time.
“At the same time that the entire nation was watching the
nail-biter for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota, there was a non-event taking
place farther down the ballot,� said Tony Solgård, author of the report.
The report found that 55 percent of Senate seats and 56
percent of House seats are ‘safe’ for one party or the other based on difference
between DFL and GOP average party strength measured by a sample of statewide
elections. Some are so secure as to be virtually ‘Untouchable,’ and the ‘Most
Untouchable’ legislators were identified in the report.
All of the ‘Untouchable’ legislators were reelected. Most
of the ‘Vulnerable’ legislators were defeated. More significantly, the report
accurately predicted the winners in 35 out of 37 noncompetitive Senate elections
and in 73 out of 75 noncompetitive House races, an accuracy rate of 94.6 percent
and 97.3 percent, respectively. The report said a month ahead of the election
that the prospects for the Republicans were bright. Now we know that this
prediction was on the mark. In fact, the predictions were cautious and could
have been more aggressive without sacrificing accuracy, as the correlation
between party strength and election victory held firm well below the 10 percent
spread used to make the predictions.
In open seats, the report was right in 20 out of 21 House
elections (95.2%) and 11 out of 11 Senate seats ‑100%! In the incumbent pairings
due to redistricting, the report “batted a thousand� in predicting three House
pairings and the only Senate incumbent match-up.
What’s the point? Competitive elections are important to
the quality of our democracy. If we don’t have them, we sacrifice several
important principles.
- Voters should be able to affect the outcome of an
election. A shift in voter sentiment should result in a corresponding shift in
the composition of the legislature. That does not happen very clearly or
directly in noncompetitive elections.
- Legislators elected from noncompetitive districts are not
structurally accountable to the voters and can become unresponsive to the
interests of constituents.
- Political power is tied to geography, penalizing
competitive areas and the state as a whole.
- The state becomes Balkanized into political regions where
one party has no motivation to consider the interests of areas dominated by
the rival party.
- The real campaign is directed toward swing voters in
swing districts, leaving most voters feeling like politics is not about issues
that affect them.
- Taken together, these effects of noncompetitive elections
reduce voter turnout.
The report is available at
../resources/publications/nce2002.pdf.
FairVote Minnesota is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization
working for better representation, accountability, discourse, and participation
by educating Minnesotans about the impact voting systems have on the quality of
our democracy. The organization promotes voting systems that have been
demonstrated to improve the quality of democracy as measured by criteria such as
political competitiveness. These include instant runoff voting in single-winner
elections and proportional representation for councils, legislatures, and the
Congress. For more information, see
http://www.FairVoteMN.org.
FairVote Minnesota works closely with the Washington
DC-based Center for Voting and Democracy, whose Monopoly Politics report
assessing the competitiveness of U.S. Congressional elections inspired
No-Contest Elections™. The Center’s report is available at
|
|
Number of |
Number of |
Percent |
|
For all seats |
|
||
|
House |
75 |
73 |
97.3% |
|
Senate |
37 |
35 |
94.6% |
|
For open seats |
|
||
|
House |
21 |
20 |
95.2% |
|
Senate |
11 |
11 |
100.0% |
|
For paired incumbents |
|
||
|
House |
3 |
3 |
100.0% |
|
Senate |
1 |
1 |
100.0% |
|
|
House |
Senate |
|
Most ‘Untouchable’ legislators elected |
10 out of 10 |
5 out of 5 |
|
Most Vulnerable legislators defeated |
5 out of 8* |
3 out of 5** |
*Two of the ten representatives
originally listed in this category (Richard Mulder in 20A and John Tuma in 25B)
were not on the general election ballot, though their party caucus reported to
us that they were. Thus, only eight could be included in this analysis.
**One of the senators in the Most
Vulnerable category who was reelected in spite of being statistically vulnerable
was Sheila Kiscaden, who merited a large footnote in the report’s discussion
section.
|
|
Incumbent's party, open seat, or paired incumbents |
|
|
|
01A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
01B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
02A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
02B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
03A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
03B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
04A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
04B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
05A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
05B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
06A |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
06B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
07A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
07B |
Paired |
DFL |
Right |
|
08A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
08B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
09A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
09B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
10A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
10B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
11A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
11B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
12A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
12B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
13A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
13B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
14A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
14B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
15A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
15B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
16A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
16B |
Paired |
GOP |
Right |
|
17A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
17B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
18A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
18B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
19A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
19B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
20A |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
20B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
21A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
21B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
22A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
22B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
23A |
Paired |
Not called |
Not called |
|
23B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
24A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
24B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
25A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
25B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
26A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
26B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
27A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
27B |
Open |
DFL |
Wrong |
|
28A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
28B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
29A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
29B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
30A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
30B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
31A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
31B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
32A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
32B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
33A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
33B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
34A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
34B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
35A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
35B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
36A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
36B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
37A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
37B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
38A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
38B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
39A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
39B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
40A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
40B |
DFL |
GOP |
Wrong |
|
41A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
41B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
42A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
42B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
43A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
43B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
44A |
Paired |
Not called |
Not called |
|
44B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
45A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
45B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
46A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
46B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
47A |
Paired |
GOP |
Right |
|
47B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
48A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
48B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
49A |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
49B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
50A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
50B |
DFL |
GOP |
Right |
|
51A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
51B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
52A |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
52B |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
53A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
53B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
54A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
54B |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
55A |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
55B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
56A |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
56B |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
57A |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
57B |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
58A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
58B |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
59A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
59B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
60A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
60B |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
61A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
61B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
62A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
62B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
63A |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
63B |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
64A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
64B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
65A |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
65B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
66A |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
66B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
67A |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
67B |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
|
|
|
|
|
01 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
02 |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
03 |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
04 |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
05 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
06 |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
07 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
08 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
09 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
10 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
11 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
12 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
13 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
14 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
15 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
16 |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
17 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
18 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
19 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
20 |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
21 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
22 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
23 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
24 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
25 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
26 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
27 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
28 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
29 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
30 |
IND |
GOP |
Wrong |
|
31 |
GOP |
Not called |
Not called |
|
32 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
33 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
34 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
35 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
36 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
37 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
38 |
DFL |
GOP |
Right |
|
39 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
40 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
41 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
42 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
43 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
44 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
45 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
46 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
47 |
DFL |
GOP |
Wrong |
|
48 |
Open |
GOP |
Right |
|
49 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
50 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
51 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
52 |
Paired |
GOP |
Right |
|
53 |
GOP |
GOP |
Right |
|
54 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
55 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
56 |
DFL |
GOP |
Right |
|
57 |
Open |
Not called |
Not called |
|
58 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
59 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
60 |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
61 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
62 |
Open |
DFL |
Right |
|
63 |
DFL |
Not called |
Not called |
|
64 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
65 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
66 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |
|
67 |
DFL |
DFL |
Right |